Drivers of fire extinction in global forests over 2001-2020

Wildfires play a central role in the global carbon cycle, but the forest fire is intensifying globally. Controlling wildfires is crucial for managing carbon emissions, but the extinction processes remain poorly quantified. We analyzed global forest fire extinction drivers from 2001 to 2020 using satellite-derived firelines and machine-learning attribution at 500 m resolution. Totally, we identified 98,090 individual fire events worldwide and classified fireline pixels into fire and extinction states, then Random Forest models were used to model extinction procedure. The model showed a robust performance across regions (accuracy 0.72–0.85). Fire extinction mechanisms differ across biomes: in high-latitude forests, extinction is mainly controlled by climatic and fuel conditions, whereas in tropical regions fires more often terminate when constrained by terrain features such as rivers, roads, and topographic breaks. Temporal trends form 2001-2020 present a significant decreased trend of natural climate-driven extinction capacity, with reduced effectiveness of VPD, and a relative strengthening of terrain-related constraints in North America and central Asia (slope = -0.629–-0.318). While the effectiveness of fuel and terrain conditions intensified by time in North America and Asia, with a slope of 0.006–0.032. Especially for extreme fires, the extinction relied more on terrain barriers as climatic suppression fails. Our results imply that with the climate warming, high‑latitude forests require enhanced fire monitoring, while tropical and other fire‑prone regions must strengthen infrastructure and leverage terrain barriers, especially against extreme fires where natural climate‑driven suppression is weakening.