Geomorphological hazards vulnerability at the settlement level in the Republic of Moldova: insights from the cartographic analysis for the last two centuries

Vulnerability analysis is paramount to hazard and risk analysis, and very often is too qualitative and lacks validation. Only the back-analysis of historical data can be used to validate quantitative assessments in certain research contexts. We present a cartographic analysis, doubled by archive analysis, of the settlement network in the Republic of Moldova that is used to establish case studies of hazard and vulnerability scenarios. The cartographic analysis covers the ’20 and ’21 centuries, and uses topographic maps and aerial imagery. Through change detection and overlay analysis, we identified 240 settlements, where parts of settlements were affected by landslides, riverbank erosion, or floods that generated the displacement of the population. Every case study was documented to establish the natural hazard type, the intensity and magnitude of the process, the exposed elements, their vulnerability and the losses. These situations are also complex, because very often the decision of displacement because of the activity of the natural process is taken in conjunction with political and socio-economic contexts. The resulting data was synthesized in model scenarios for every type of natural hazard, climatic and socio-economic pathway that can be used for further modelling, considering the impact of climate change or economic and political changes.