- 1Fujian Normal University, School of Geographical Sciences, Fuzhou, China (s.lin@fjnu.edu.cn)
- 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03 D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
- 3Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
- 4School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), 519082 Zhuhai, China
- 5Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, 519082 Zhuhai, China
- 6Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China
- 7Department of Computer Science, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
- 8Department of Physics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
- 9School of Mathematical Sciences, SCMS, and CCSB, Fudan University, 200433 Shanghai, China
Tropical convectionanomaly could serve as a crucial driver of global atmospheric teleconnections and weather extremes around the world. However, quantifying the dominances of convection anomalies with regional discrepancies, relevant for the variations of global atmospheric circulations, remains challenging. By using a network analysis of observation-based rainfall and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, our study reveals that El Niño-like convection is the most primary rainfall pattern driving the global atmospheric circulation variations. High local concurrences of above-normal rainfall events over equatorial central-eastern Pacific amplify their impacts, even though the most intense rainfall anomalies are observed near the Maritime Continent. Furthermore, we find that the impacts of El Niño- like convection will be tripled by the end of this century, as projected consistently by 23 climate models. Such “rich nodes get richer” phenomenon is probably attributable to the dipolar rainfall changes over theequatorial western-central Pacific. This study highlights the dominant role of El Niño- like convection on the global climate variations, especially under the future changing climate.
How to cite: Lin, S., Cai, F., Gerten, D., Yang, S., Jiang, X., Su, Z., and Kurths, J.: Intensified dominance of El Niño-like convection relevant for global atmospheric circulation variations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4441, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4441, 2026.
