1,2,3,9,10,11,12- 1Center for Critical Computational Studies, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany (nico.wunderling@pik-potsdam.de)
- 2Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History Museum, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- 3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Earth Resilience Science Unit, Potsdam, Germany
- 4Institute for Earth and Environment, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- 5Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- 6Amazon Regional Observatory, Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ORA/OTCA), Brasília, Brazil
- 7Instituto Juruá, Manaus, Brazil
- 8Equalsea-lab, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
- 9Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
- 10Department of Plant Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
- 11Group IpES, Department of Physics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
- 12Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Humanity is exerting unprecedented pressure on the Amazon forest through global warming, deforestation, land-use change, and large-scale infrastructure projects. As the Amazon may exhibit a tipping point beyond which detrimental changes become self-propelling, these pressures could trigger system-wide state shifts. We use a dynamical systems model to assess local transition risks and cascading transitions across the Amazon under different SSP-scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). For each scenario, atmospheric moisture transport is derived throughout the 21st century using an established moisture-tracking model.
In the absence of deforestation, we identify a critical global warming threshold of 3.7-4.0 °C, beyond which around one third of the Amazon loses stability. When deforestation is included, however, our simulations indicate a near system-wide transition (62-77% of the forest area) at global warming levels of 1.5-2.0°C combined with 20-30% deforestation across the basin. Most transitions are driven by drought-induced knock-on effects, causing long-range cascading impacts through the lack of atmospheric moisture recycling. Overall, our results highlight the need to limit warming to as close to 1.5 °C as possible and, halt deforestation at current levels (~17% across the basin), while ideally restoring degraded areas to reduce transition risks across the Amazon forest.
How to cite: Wunderling, N., Sakschewski, B., Rockström, J., Flores, B. M., Hirota, M., and Staal, A.: Pinpointing Amazon forest tipping in global warming and deforestation pathways, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4490, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4490, 2026.
