Imprints of climate variability drivers in multi-centennial central European temperature series

In this contribution, potential drivers of central European temperature oscillations and trends, related to both external forcings and internal climate variability modes, are explored through statistical analysis of several temperature time series, spanning the period since 1501 CE. The target data include local temperature reconstructions, derived from a combination of instrumental and documentary sources, as well as temperature fields approximated by the ModE-RA paleo-reanalysis. To identify and quantify the contributions attributable to individual climate-influencing factors, linear and nonlinear regression analysis techniques are applied to extract temperature components related to external climate forcings (solar and volcanic activity, radiative balance changes) and to teleconnections projected by large-scale internal climate variability modes (NAO, ENSO, as well as decadal variability originating from the Atlantic and Pacific regions). Attention is also paid to the possible manifestations of nonlinearities in the links between climate drivers and the temperature responses, to the presence of non-stationarities and inhomogeneities in the data, and to the differences in results obtained for different proxy-based reconstructions of the explanatory variables.