- 1Zhejiang University, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Hangzhou, China (sitongwang@zju.edu.cn)
- 2College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
- 3Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
- 4Institute for Climate and Carbon Neutrality, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, P. R. China
- 5Biosphere Sciences and Engineering, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
- 6International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
- 7Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
- 8State Key Laboratory of Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100085, Beijing, China
- 9Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Science, Xiamen 361021, China
Smallholder farming has been central to the global food supply for centuries, yet its role is waning as economic development reshapes agricultural systems. This transition remains poorly understood, limiting our capacity to safeguard food security and environmental sustainability under rapid structural change. Using agricultural data from 124 countries from 1961 to 2021, we reveal a widespread shift from staple to cash crops, especially in low- and middle-income countries dominated by smallholders. This shift coincides with rising staple food imports, challenging national food security objectives.
Our analysis uncovers a global divergence in socio-ecological outcomes. Over six decades, high-income countries expanded average farm size by 126%. This structural consolidation was linked to a 12% reduction in cash crop ratios and a 99% increase in staple productivity. Crucially, it also decoupled production from environmental pressure, associated with declines in net staple imports by 58%, nitrogen pollution by 28%, and post-harvest losses by 38%. By contrast, smallholder-dominated regions saw farm size shrink by 12%. This fragmentation was accompanied by a 2% increase in cash crop ratios but a 26% decline in staple productivity. Consequently, these regions faced intensifying pressures, including an 11% rise in staple imports, a 12% increase in nitrogen pollution, and a 9% increase in crop losses.
These patterns identify farm size as a critical socio-economic driver strongly correlated with global production, trade, and environmental outcomes. Our findings underscore the need to integrate farm size management with agricultural practices to reconcile the trade-offs between food security goals and planetary boundaries.
How to cite: Wang, S., Duan, J., Ren, C., Zhang, X., Wang, C., Lu, M., Xu, J., Zhu, Y.-G., and Gu, B.: Farm size reshapes food security and environmental sustainability through crop structure and trade, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-4769, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-4769, 2026.
