EGU26-482, updated on 13 Mar 2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-482
EGU General Assembly 2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Oral | Wednesday, 06 May, 08:35–08:45 (CEST)
 
Room 1.15/16
LCAI Multi-Parameter Analysis of the 2023 Turkey Doublet Earthquake for Enhanced Anomaly Extraction using Deviation-Space-Time-Frequency (DSTF) Criterion
Rabia Rasheed
Rabia Rasheed

The extraction of reliable seismic anomalies for searching earthquake precursors remains a challenging problem in understanding earthquake preparation processes. We address this through frequency-domain validation of lithosphere-coversphere-atmosphere-ionosphere (LCAI) coupling using the 2023 Turkey earthquake doublet (Mw 7.8, Mw 7.5) as a case study. By adding frequency criteria to conventional deviation-space-time (DST) analysis, our Deviation-Space-Time-Frequency (DSTF) framework requires the potential anomalies to simultaneously satisfy four rigorous criteria such as, (D): robust anomaly detection with anomaly magnitude exceeding ±1.4σ from the 15-day rolling baseline, (S): anomalies must align with geosphere-specific manifestation zones scaling as ρLC = 10(0.433M-0.39) km (lithosphere/coversphere), ρA = 10(0.433M+0.20) km (atmosphere), and ρI = 10(0.433M+0.54) km (ionosphere), (T): quasi-synchronous activation across geospheres with physically plausible propagation delays and (F): band-specific power enhancement (+3 dB in 2–10-day pre-seismic band; +6 dB in 0.2–5 mHz co-seismic band) with cross-layer coherence C ≥ 0.5, physically consistent phase lags, and transient nonstationary dynamics. Integrating multiple parameters across multiple geosphere’s microwave brightness temperature (MBT), surface latent heat flux (SLHF), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), total electron content (TEC), and Swarm electron density/temperature we demonstrate systematic vertical coupling under geomagnetically quiet conditions (Dst > -30 nT, Kp < 4, F10.7 < 160 SFU). Wavelet coherence analysis reveals SLHF leads TEC by 2.5 ± 0.3 days (C = 0.71) and OLR by 1.2 ± 0.2 days (C = 0.61) during the pre-seismic phase. Co-seismic coupling exhibits elevated MBT-TEC coherence (C = 0.70–0.85) on February 6, distinguishing impulsive seismic forcing from gradual multi-day atmospheric buildup. The DSTF framework achieves 89% true positive rate with 8% false alarms (F-score = 0.90). This quantitative validation transforms LCAI from conceptual model to testable hypothesis with reproducible detection criteria. The integration of seismological, atmospheric, and electromagnetic observations under long-term analysis conditions contributes to advancing future multi-parametric monitoring infrastructures and better understanding of inherent mechanisms underlying earthquake precursory phenomena.

How to cite: Rasheed, R.: LCAI Multi-Parameter Analysis of the 2023 Turkey Doublet Earthquake for Enhanced Anomaly Extraction using Deviation-Space-Time-Frequency (DSTF) Criterion, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-482, 2026.