From Large-Scale Structures to Turbulence: Advancing Virtual Spacecraft Diagnostics for Space Weather Forecasting

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are one of the main drivers of strong space weather disturbances. The interaction between CMEs and the Earth’s magnetic field can cause a wide range of phenomena and the magnetic configuration and orientation are key factors in determining the geo-effectiveness of this type of events. Modeling these events accurately is an ongoing challenge, and data-driven simulations are a valuable operational and research tool, widely used by the community.

Using the 3D data-driven MagnetoHydroDynamical (MHD) heliospheric solar wind and CME evolution model EUHFORIA (European Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset), our aim is to model CME events that can impact the Earth. Forthcoming missions, developed by ASI (Italian Space Agency), aims to improve space weather forecasting capabilities, particularly for CMEs, solar energetic particles (SEPs), and other interplanetary disturbances.

In particular SEPs events are of huge importance for Space Weather risks. It is well established that particle acceleration at shocks is linked to the turbulence characterizing the environment in which particles are propagating. Consequently, understanding the role of turbulence is of fundamental importance for the propagation, acceleration and characterization of SEP events. To account for these processes, we aim to integrate the effects of both large-scale structures and turbulence in the simulations, either by using 3D EUHFORIA outputs or thorough 2.5 MHD simulation performed with MPI-ArmVAC, thereby enhancing the diagnostic capabilities of virtual spacecraft.

As a case study, we analyse the event of 3 November 2021, observed by both ACE and Solar Orbiter (SolO), which were nearly co-located in latitude and longitude, with a radial separation of ~22 million km. Comparing EUHFORIA simulations with in situ data from both spacecraft provides valuable insight into the new mission’s potential performance once operational.     

This study was carried out within the Space It Up project funded by the Italian Space Agency, ASI, and the Ministry of University and Research, MUR, under Contract Grant Nos. 2024-5-E.0-CUP and I53D24000060005.