DTC Ice Sheets: Regional Sea Level Fingerprints from EO-Constrained Mass Balance

As ice sheets melt, they contribute to sea level rise, a process that varies regionally due to gravitational, rotational, and deformational effects, making location-specific projections essential for effective coastal adaptation. Here, we present the Mass Balance and Sea Level module of the ESA Digital Twin Component (DTC) for the Ice Sheets system, which is developed as a precursor to ice efforts within the EU's Destination Earth (DestinE) platform.

Our approach integrates multi-decadal radar altimetry observations and land surface temperature records to diagnose the contemporary ice sheet mass balance for Greenland, based on machine learning techniques to capture fine-scale spatial patterns in mass change. Additionally, our sea-level module computes regionally resolved sea level fingerprints that account for far-field effects of ice sheet mass redistribution, translating ice sheet changes into location-specific projections along European coasts.

Here, we demonstrate the operational capability through scenario-based applications, quantifying how different mass loss pathways affect coastal regions distinctly across Europe. Further, the system's modular architecture also enables interoperability with ocean and atmosphere components within DestinE, when ready, supporting integrated what-if scenario exploration.

Ultimately, by operationalizing the connection between satellite observations and regional sea level projections, the DTC Ice Sheets module may help bridge the observational-modeling divide and provide stakeholders with actionable insights for climate adaptation.