Sustainability assessment of Almaty urban water management using DPSIR-MCDA approach

Water scarcity has emerged as one of the most pressing issues in Central Asia, driven by climate change, transboundary water issues, rapid population growth, and escalating demands on limited water resources. For the Republic of Kazakhstan, water security has become a critical aspect of national security, recognised as early as 2003 and becoming more urgent from year to year. Despite an estimated renewable water resource potential, Kazakhstan faces significant water scarcity, particularly in the southern regions, due to uneven distribution, excessive water withdrawal for irrigation, and climatic variability. This research aims to assess the challenges in water resources management in Almaty, the primate city of Kazakhstan, using the DPSIR-MCDA approach. The DPSIR assessment of Almaty’s urban water system indicates that climate change, rapid demographic expansion, urbanization, and infrastructure underinvestment are primary drivers, generating pressures such as altered glacial runoff, variable groundwater recharge, rising consumption, and severe infrastructure deterioration. These pressures have degraded the system’s state, resulting in unstable water availability, high distribution losses, and unequal access to centralized services in peri-urban areas. The analysis indicates that effective responses must include adaptive abstraction strategies, large-scale infrastructure rehabilitation, expansion of water reuse and circular systems, and targeted PPP-based development for underserved districts. To prioritise these measures from the perspective of sustainability factors (economic, environmental, social, and technological), two respective questionnaires were developed and distributed among twenty-six experts: experienced academicians in the urban water management and local representatives. The outcomes were assessed using the hybridised versions of DEMATEL-ANP as a tool for MCDA. The results showed that the measure focusing on the implementation of Circular Economy principles received the highest total weighted score, demonstrating strong performance, particularly in the technological dimension, and a relatively balanced influence across the others. The measure of tariffs' modification and strengthening control mechanisms for water users followed closely, primarily driven by its dominant performance in the economic dimension. Awareness-raising initiatives ranked third, demonstrating particular strength in the social dimension, whereas water use diversification ranked fourth with a more even distribution across dimensions. The engaging independent private enterprises received the lowest composite score, suggesting weaker alignment with environmental and social sustainability. The study concludes that delivering water supply and sanitation services in a more sustainable, inclusive, efficient, and resilient manner requires technologically advanced solutions and proper governance response.