Modelling Local Governance Structure and Flood Resilience in the 1870 Yangtze River Flood

By the 18th century, China had established a relatively systematic and stable framework for relief institutions and bureaucratic operations. This study introduces the agent-based analytical framework FRAMα to reproduce the local governance network embedded in this bureaucratic structure. FRAMα is a reduced version of the empirically informed flood resilience agent-based modelling framework FRAMe, in which only the most essential mechanisms are retained.

Using a county affected by the 1870 Yangtze River flood as a case, the study describes local flood response conditions during the event. Scenario analysis shows that, although the bureaucratic system was relatively well developed, local governance outcomes varied substantially under different network configurations. A centralized governance structure relied heavily on the stability of key nodes, particularly on whether the local chief official (county magistrate) continued to fulfill their responsibilities. When this node remained functional, local governance exhibited a high level of operational resilience. Once the node ceased to function, system resilience declined rapidly and flood losses increased accordingly.

By transforming the recurrent historical issue of “officials’ dereliction of duty” into an analytical object of governance network structure, this study extends existing research on Qing dynasty relief and bureaucratic governance. It offers a new perspective for understanding the resilience of institutional operation in historical disaster governance and highlights the importance of shared responsibility and substitution mechanisms for contemporary flood resilience building.