Equity and Cooperation in the Amu Darya Basin: Afghanistan’s Delayed Path to Water Development from Karakum to Qosh Tepa: Historical Asymmetry and Cooperative Adjustment in the Amu Darya Basin.

The Amu Darya Basin, with an estimated flow rate of 2,525 cubic meters per second, has long played a key role in supporting large-scale agriculture and economic development in Central Asia, particularly in downstream countries such as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Due to the prolonged conflict, instability, institutional incompetency and exclusion from basin-wide water management provisions during the Soviet period, Afghanistan has been unable to utilize the basin’s water resources for decades, despite of being a major upstream riparian in the region. Consequently, extensive asymmetries have arisen in the distribution of development benefits resulting from the Amu Darya.

Turkmenistan annually diverts more than 13 km³ of water from the Amu Darya through the Karakum Canal, supporting wheat and cotton production. In contrast, upstream countries such as Afghanistan have not experienced similar infrastructure development due to prolonged conflict and institutional constraints, which has often led to imbalances in water use and development among the concerned states. By comparing the long-lasting role of the Karakum Canal in Turkmenistan with the more recent Qosh Tepa Canal initiative launched in 2022 in northern Afghanistan, this paper examines Afghanistan’s overdue engagement in water resources development within the Amu Darya basin. Though the canals are comparable from their scale and strategic prospects, however, their unlike development paths embody variances in terms of political support, financial capacity and historical opportunities in lieu of inequality in right or need for development. The Karakum Canal became a cornerstone of Turkmenistan’s agricultural economy under strong Soviet institutional backing, it transformed large arid land of the Karakum Desert into irrigated agricultural land, expanded cultivated land and increased agricultural output, the canal also supported settlement expansion and stabilized rural livelihoods, whereas Afghanistan’s internal instability and limited access to international support constrained similar investments for decades.  instead of framing Afghanistan’s current water use as a disruption to existing arrangements, this study emphasize on a cooperation-oriented perspective that situates the Qosh Tepa Canal as a long-overdue corrective to historical imbalance.

The paper highlights that an inclusive governance mechanism is required for the sustainable water management of the Amu Darya basin that identifies both the real development need of Afghanistan and to address the concerns of other downstream countries through negotiation, efficiency improvements and cooperation. It suggests equitable and cooperative methods and approaches that offer a logical and realistic way to ensure regional water security, economic resilience and long-term stability in Central Asia, particularly among the riparian countries.