Advancing Global Numerical Weather Prediction: Strategic Roadmaps and Experimental Evaluations of NOAA’s Next-Generation LEO Constellations

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) observations are fundamental to global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), with the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) serving as a critical pillar for monitoring extreme weather events such as wildfires, hurricanes, and floods. To ensure data continuity into the 2030s, NOAA is transitioning from the current JPSS era—supported by Suomi-NPP, NOAA-20, and NOAA-21—toward future missions, including JPSS-3, JPSS-4, and the innovative Near Earth Orbit Network (NEON) program.

Scientific experiments and formulation studies are critical to developing requirements for future sensor capabilities within the NEON architecture. The primary objective is to demonstrate how next-generation initiatives—such as the QuickSounder and the Series-1 microwave sounder missions—will mitigate data gaps and reduce systemic risks to NWP while enhancing Earth system prediction through technical innovation and commercial data integration. Series-1 will host the Sounder for Microwave-Based Applications (SMBA), a successor to the current Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder sensor on JPSS and QuickSounder missions. It features enhanced capabilities, such as hyperspectral measurements, to mitigate the potential influence of Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) while improving vertical resolution.

To develop a credible mission architecture responsive to program constraints, the LEO program sponsored several Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). Data from various spaceborne platforms were assimilated alongside conventional observations to evaluate performance across diverse metrics, including root mean square errors and ensemble spread differences in atmospheric profiles for key forecast variables—such as temperature, water vapor, geopotential height, and wind fields—and Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impacts. Results from the OSSEs provide quantitative evidence of how various observations influence the accuracy of atmospheric profiling and NWP. Experiments also assessed the impact of microwave and infrared observations on tropical cyclone track and intensity prediction. Furthermore, OSSEs explored the complementarity of current satellite assets with a proposed "geostationary ring" of infrared sounders.

This presentation outlines NOAA’s strategic roadmap for evolving LEO capabilities. This roadmap emphasizes international collaboration, commercial satellite data, and the strategic deployment of advanced sensors to ensure a robust, high-fidelity Earth observation network for the coming decades. Finally, the presentation highlights the high impact of microwave and infrared soundings on NWP models.