Identify the worst-case scenario where extreme weather has the greatest impact on the global staple crop trade

Many countries rely on international trade to ensure food security. With climate change and projected increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, a significant portion of currently traded crops is vulnerable to climate extremes. While many studies have quantified the impact of extreme weather on crop production, few have linked these impacts to international trade and analyzed how future risks differ from the past. In this study, I combined crop modeling with FAOSTAT on crop and food trade data to identify the worst-case scenario in which extreme weather affects global staple crop trade. Six staple crops were included in the analysis. Probability distributions of each crop’s production were estimated for both historical and future periods under the 2020 crop distribution baseline. The worst-case scenario was determined based on the amount of traded crop affected in the past and future climates. The results provide insight into how future risks differ from historical patterns and whether international trade can continue to ensure food security under changing climate conditions.