2,5,6,1- 1Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System, Qingdao, China (wangjinping@ouc.edu.cn)
- 2Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Australia
- 3Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- 4The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia
- 5School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
- 6The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
Global, regional and local sea-level projections rely on complex process-based models of the climate-ocean-cryosphere system. While extrapolation of observational data has been examined on global and regional scales, this approach has not yet been used for the additional complexities of coastal sea-level projections. Here, we evaluate the sea-level trend and acceleration for a global network of 222 tide-gauge observations over 1970-2023, which are then extrapolated to provide local projections up to 2050 and compared with the process-based projections from the IPCC AR6. For 2050 relative to 2020, the observation-based and medium-confidence AR6 projections agree within the likely range at 96% of tide-gauge locations. Despite larger spatial variability, the observation-based projections are usually well below the low-likelihood, high-impact AR6 projections. The observation-based projections provide complementary perspectives of near-term local sea-level changes, and this agreement provides increased confidence in the current understanding and projections of sea-level changes over coming decades.
How to cite: Wang, J., Zhang, X., Church, J., King, M., and Chen, X.: Near-term future sea-level projections supported by extrapolation of tide-gauge observations, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-6033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-6033, 2026.
