Public Perception of Typhoon Modification Technology: Examining Expected Benefits, ELSI, and Stakeholders

Background and Objectives

As typhoons intensify due to climate change, typhoon modification technology has gained renewed attention. Japan's Moonshot Goal 8 program, launched in 2022, has accelerated technological development in this area. However, social implementation requires addressing not only technical feasibility but also ethical, legal, and social implications (ELSI). While previous studies have qualitatively organized the expectations and concerns held by people regarding typhoons and typhoon modification technologies through dialogue sessions, large-scale investigations of public cognitive structures remain limited. This study aimed to elucidate people’s perceptions regarding expected benefits, ELSI concerns, and relevant stakeholders through a nationwide questionnaire survey.

Methods

1,000 participants comprised across Japan, recruited through a web-based survey with quota sampling by gender, age, and residential region. The questionnaire assessed expected benefits (9 items), ELSI concerns (15 items), stakeholders (14 items), all rated on five-point scales. Cluster analysis was conducted for each domain, followed by two-way ANOVA with residential region (four prefectures most affected by typhoons vs. others) and cluster.

Results

Cluster analysis of expected benefits revealed three clusters: disaster risk reduction, social and broader benefits, and economic applications of technological development. Two-way ANOVA revealed a significant main effect of cluster (F = 270.87, p < .01, η² = .21), with disaster risk reduction rated highest. Neither regional main effect nor interaction was significant.

Cluster analysis of ELSI revealed six clusters: environmental and ecological risks, technological uncertainty and governance, economic costs, decreased disaster preparedness awareness, transformation of social structures and views of nature, and risks of misuse and international conflict. Both cluster (F = 120.13, p < .01, η² = .11) and regional main effects (F = 5.52, p < .05, η² = .01) were significant, with four prefectures showing heightened ELSI concerns. In addition, concerns regarding the cluster of economic costs were the highest.

Cluster analysis of stakeholders revealed five clusters: policy and technical experts, local practitioners and economic actors, general citizens and disaster victims, education and ethics professionals and foreign governments. The cluster main effect was significant (F = 363.12, p < .01, η² = .27), with policy and technical experts deemed most essential. A significant interaction (F = 2.97, p < .05) indicated that four prefectures prioritized consultation with foreign governments over input from education and ethics professionals.

Conclusions

The results of this study indicate that public recognizes both multifaceted expected benefits and ELSI regarding typhoon modification technology. Prefectures of typhoon-affected regions exhibit higher concern of ELSI. In addition, public emphasizes the involvement of stakeholders and recognizes the need for inclusive consensus-building that includes citizens and disaster victims, rather than leaving technological decision-making solely to experts. These findings highlight the importance of communication and consensus-building frameworks that take public awareness structures into account in societal decision-making related to typhoon modification technologies.