Techno-Economic Assessment and Supply Forecasting of Lithium from Primary Sources

Global lithium demand is increasing rapidly, with approximately 87% of projected growth driven by Lithium-ion batteries and the expansion of electric vehicles. This trend raises critical questions regarding the availability of lithium resources, the diversity of supply sources, and the economic viability of extraction. This study presents a comprehensive comparative assessment of the main lithium deposit types, including salar brines, granitic pegmatites, and sedimentary deposits. These deposits are classified according to their geological characteristics, typical size and grade ranges, geographic distribution, and global resource and reserve estimates. Beyond the resource base, the study examines the technical and economic aspects of lithium production for each deposit type. The global lithium value chain is mapped, and the principal processing routes leading to lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) are analyzed. A techno-economic modeling framework is employed to estimate capital expenditure (CAPEX), operating expenditure (OPEX), project development timelines, and life cycle assessment (LCA) indicators, enabling consistent comparison across production pathways. Based on this framework, the contribution of different deposit types and grade classes to future global lithium supply under alternative market and policy scenarios will be assessed. A competitive classification framework will be developed to identify the deposits most likely to enter production, considering technical feasibility, economic competitiveness, and environmental constraints.