Resident Adaptation Patterns Under the Influence of Global Flood Evolution

Global warming has significantly altered the spatiotemporal distribution of floods, leading to substantial variations in human adaptation patterns. Identifying the potential drivers of these changes and the underlying mechanisms of disaster adaptation is essential for formulating effective flood risk strategies. Based on observed streamflow records from 9,531 hydrological stations and data from 910 major flood events worldwide, this study reveals that most regions globally exhibit synchronized trends in drought and flood flows, with 28.14% showing a simultaneous increase and 33.36% showing a simultaneous decrease. To mitigate flood risk, residents in 53% of countries—most notably in the Middle East—demonstrate a tendency to migrate away from flood-prone areas. This retreat has significantly reduced flood-related mortality and forced displacement. Conversely, in regions with robust flood protection infrastructure, residents tend to maintain shorter migration distances. Further analysis of the drivers behind floodplain migration indicates that in developing nations, flood-induced mortality and displacement are the primary catalysts for relocation. In these contexts, the psychological memory of destruction or the urgent need for resources often compels residents to either flee or, paradoxically, migrate toward flood-prone zones. Under climate-driven pressures, the extent of flood inundation is a more significant determinant of migration patterns in regions such as Australia. Notably, in countries like the Philippines and Kenya, the mitigation of compound drought-flood extremes has encouraged further settlement in flood-prone areas, highlighting the complexity of multi-hazard interactions. This study systematically deciphers the mechanisms underlying flood adaptation strategies and attributes their primary drivers, providing a robust scientific framework for enhancing flood risk management and regional resilience.