Assessing future wind energy resources in the Iberian Peninsula under climate change scenarios

This study evaluates annual changes in wind power density (WPD) in a domain covering the Iberian Peninsula and adjacent areas using several CMIP6 global climate models and the ensemble mean under historical (1961-1990) and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for two-time horizons—near future (2041–2070) and far future (2071–2100).

Results from the ensemble indicate a robust and generalized decrease in WPD throughout the 21st century. The most pronounced declines occur in windows starting mid-century (2050–2055), with reductions of about -90 W m^-2 century^-1 persisting for up to 40-year periods. Short-lived positive trends (≈ 50 W m^-2 century^-1) appear around 2030 and 2045, suggesting temporary peaks before a marked decline (≈ -100 W m^-2 century^-1) in later decades. Comparisons between future and historical periods reveal strong WPD decreases (-70 W m^-2), mainly offshore, particularly in far-future scenarios.

Inland areas may experience annual mean WPD values falling below the cut-in threshold (3 m/s, ≈ 15.5 W m^-2), rendering some older wind farms economically and technically unviable. Offshore regions, despite current technological priorities, face substantial WPD reductions (up to -60 W m^-2), while inland declines are significant in northeastern Spain, where major wind farms are located. These projected reductions—especially offshore (10–20%)—could challenge the financial viability of future wind energy projects.