A data-driven modelling approach to quantify the safe operating space of the Amazon rainforest under global warming and deforestation

The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the core tipping elements in the climate system with a potential tipping point in the range of 2-6℃ of global warming. However, the complexity of tropical ecosystems makes climate change projections on the future of the Amazon rainforest inherently difficult. Furthermore, deforestation as an additional driver plays a key role in the Amazon rainforest and can synergistically interfere with global warming induced impacts. This creates a need for combined assessments of the safe operating space of the Amazon rainforest under global warming and deforestation. 
Here, we introduce a risk-assessment approach combining a simple tipping model with different data sources for local-scale tipping points, precipitation changes due to climate change (mean annual precipitation and maximum cumulative water deficit), strength of the atmospheric moisture-recycling feedback and future deforestation pathways. With this approach we can quantify the safe operating space of the Amazon rainforest and find 
that under current conditions of 1.4℃ of global warming and 17% of deforestation, more than a third of the Amazon rainforest is exposed to high risks of crossing critical thresholds indicating that substantial parts of the Amazon rainforest may have already left the safe operating space. Our results reiterate the need to hold the Paris climate target and also end net deforestation by 2030.