Probabilistic Assessment of Pressure-Constrained Regional Potential for Geological Carbon Storage

Geological CO₂ storage is a key component of climate mitigation strategies, yet its large-scale deployment is hampered by the risks of rock failure and fault reactivation, which may compromise storage integrity. Mitigating these risks requires robust assessment of injection-induced pressure buildup and associated geomechanical risks, particularly in heterogeneous reservoirs and under uncertain geological and operational conditions.

In this work, we propose a fast software tool to estimate the amount of CO₂ that can be safely stored without jeopardizing fault stability, using physics-based analytical pressure solutions coupled with geomechanical failure criteria. Pressure buildup is evaluated across a range of injection scenarios and well configurations, allowing assessment of how well spacing, injection rate, and reservoir properties influence regional pressure propagation. Emphasis is placed on computationally efficient approaches that are suitable for screening studies at regional scale.

To account for subsurface uncertainty, a Monte Carlo framework is applied to quantify variability in stress state, fault orientation, and mechanical properties, and to derive critical pressure thresholds and fault-specific probabilities of failure. This probabilistic perspective supports risk-informed evaluation of pressure-constrained storage capacity and highlights parameters that most strongly control fault reactivation potential.

The tool provides scalable decision-oriented workflows for CO₂ storage by combining pressure and geomechanical analysis with practical design considerations. It helps define safe injection strategies, assess reservoir geometry and boundary effects, and guide early-stage decision making, site screening, and operational planning, reducing geomechanical risks as projects move toward regional-scale deployment.