Towards a Second-Generation Wildfire Detection and Forecasting Platform: Technical and Operational Advances in FireHUB.

Over the past decade, the operational unit BEYOND Centre in the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) has developed and presented an advanced wildfire monitoring and forecasting framework for Greece, namely FireHub. The system is ingesting real-time Meteosat Second Generation satellite data every five minutes through NOA/BEYOND’s in-house antenna, using SEVIRI Level 1.5 infrared bands (IR 3.9 and 10.8 μm) to detect ignition points with quantified confidence. A dedicated downscaling methodology refines detections to a much finer scale (300 m) than the native SEVIRI spatial resolution of 3 km. The system is further enhanced by integrating the Firehub Fire Information System (FFIS), which combines observations from VIIRS, MODIS, and Sentinel-2, providing a more comprehensive and reliable picture of the active fire state. To address early-stage satellite artifacts caused by clouds, smoke, or extreme temperatures, NOA/BEYOND has long coupled observations with fire propagation modeling, initially through the deployment of FLAMMAP alongside real-time meteorology, fuel types, and terrain information. While this hybrid approach proved accurate and well received, it faced constraints under the rapidly growing incident volume that required overwhelming computational resources. In addition, FLAMMAP relying on a static wind field defined only at ignition, limited the realism in complex and highly variable wind environments.

Under the framework of MedEWSa project, the entire system has been re-engineered from the ground up to overcome these limitations. The new architecture runs asynchronously and concurrently on high-performance computing nodes, leveraging optimized code and open data cubes to scale efficiently. FLAMMAP has been replaced by the FOREFIRE model, which incorporates wind variability in both space and time from ignition onward. Sensitivity tests demonstrate that fully dynamic wind simulations produce fire evolutions closer to observed burned scar maps than static approaches. Extensive testing across coastal zones, urban and suburban settings, and complex terrain, using multiple propagation schemes including Rothermel, Balbi, and the newly added FARSITE, has guided the selection of an operational configuration. In peak periods, dozens of fires were handled simultaneously and each ignition triggering parallel, automated propagation forecasts for the coming hours. During the 2025 fire season, the system ran in pseudo-operational mode, allowing a full evaluation to take place against the confirmed ignition points by the Hellenic Fire Service. Further developments are currently underway such as the switch to Meteosat Third Generation, in order to utilize the 1x1-km resolution scans every 10 minutes (2.5 minutes from 2027). Real-time monitoring and fire propagation outputs are presented as overlays with critical infrastructure layers, in order to support rapid action from first responders and informed decision-making by relevant authorities. The latest state will be presented just before the system’s inaugurate fire season as the operational platform of NOA/BEYOND.