Monitoring Compliance of EU Methane Regulation using High-Resolution Satellite Observations: a case study in Poland

Methane (CH4) is an important but often overlooked greenhouse gas contributing to climate change as a short term climate forcer. Coal remains the largest source of CH4 emissions in the EU energy sector. Accurate attribution of methane emissions to responsible coal mining infrastructure is critical under the EU Methane Regulation (EU-MER), which entered into force in 2025. The EU-MER prohibits routine operational venting of CH4 from coal mine drainage systems, requiring capture or flaring with a minimum destruction efficiency of 99%. Despite the existence of methane regulation, robust methodologies for accurately attributing spaceborne detected methane emissions to coal mine facilities remain insufficient. 

This study presents a satellite-based approach for attributing methane emissions to coal mine facilities in Poland, with a focus on drainage stations. We utilised high resolution methane plume observations from high resolution point source imagers acquired between January and November 2025 together with coal mine infrastructure data. 

The attribution methodology incorporates spatial proximity analysis based on geolocation accuracy with atmospheric transport data (wind speed and direction) at the time of acquisition to determine the most plausible facility responsible for the methane emissions. A qualitative confidence level was assigned to each attribution considering local knowledge on emission patterns, plume morphology and proximity to other mining infrastructure. The results show that 12 methane emission events were captured and attributed to drainage systems in Poland, of which 8 were classified as being attributed with high-confidence. 5 out of 22 investigated drainage systems seemed to vent methane with an average emission flux of approximately 1200 kg/h.

This research demonstrates that reliable compliance monitoring under emerging methane regulations is technically feasible by combining high resolution satellite observations with coal mine facility data. Moreover, the integration of meteorological information and local, expert knowledge substantially improves attribution confidence, demonstrating the value of hybrid quantitative approaches for effective policy enforcement and methane regulation compliance monitoring.