Carbon Neutrality by 2060 Is Critical for Survival of Tibetan Plateau’s Largest Glacier

This study projects the long-term evolution of the Puruogangri Ice Field (PIF), the largest ice field on the Tibetan Plateau, under different emission scenarios until 2300 using a Quasi-physical Process Glacier evolution Model (QPGM). Results indicate that under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 scenario, the PIF will lose approximately 85% of its mass by 2300, while under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, it will completely disappear by 2150. Critically, by evaluating constructed Carbon Neutrality Pathways (CNPs), we identify 2060 as a geophysical deadline for achieving carbon neutrality. If net-zero emissions are attained by 2060, limiting regional warming to 2.3°C (~2.0°C global warming above 2000-2014), the PIF can reach a new equilibrium by the end of this century. However, delays beyond 2070 lead to irreversible, nonlinear mass loss, preventing stabilization even by 2300. Therefore, achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 is essential to prevent the irreversible collapse of the Tibetan Plateau's cryosphere. Our findings establish glacial survival thresholds and quantify the time-limited climate action window for preventing TP from ice-free.