Long-term Energy Demand and Carbon-Neutrality Pathways for Egypt: A LEAP-Based Scenario Analysis (2017–2070)

Rapid growth in energy demand driven by population increase, urbanisation, and economic development, combined with continued dependence on fossil fuels, poses a major challenge for Egypt’s long-term sustainable energy transition. Addressing this challenge requires integrated modelling approaches that jointly assess renewable energy deployment, demand-side transformation, and system-wide decarbonisation strategies. This study develops a national, bottom-up, integrated energy system model for Egypt using the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) framework, soft-linked with the NEMO optimisation module, to analyse long-term transition pathways over the period 2017–2070. The model is calibrated to a detailed 2017 base year using national energy balances, sectoral activity drivers, and technology-specific techno-economic parameters. A structured scenario framework is implemented to assess the roles of alternative transition strategies in a transparent and comparable manner. Six scenarios are examined: (1) a Business-as-Usual reference (BAU/REF), (2) a Policy-Aligned Transition reflecting Egypt Vision 2030, Egypt's Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) 2035, Egypt's National Climate Change Strategy 2050 (NCCS 2050) and updated NDC commitments (PET), (3) a Renewable Power Transition focusing on large-scale integration of renewable electricity (RPT), (4) an Efficiency-Driven Transition emphasising demand-ide efficiency and demand moderation (EDT), (5) a Combined Carbon-Neutrality Strategy integrating high renewable penetration with demand-side measures under a long-term emissions constraint (CNS), and (6) a least-cost Net-Zero benchmark derived using NEMO (NZ-OPT). The integrated assessment indicates that neither renewable electricity expansion nor efficiency improvements alone are sufficient to deliver carbon neutrality. Deep system-wide decarbonisation requires their coordinated deployment, supported by accelerated electrification of end-use sectors, enhanced system flexibility, and appropriate investment sequencing. The study provides a consistent modelling framework for assessing sustainable energy transitions in Egypt and offers transferable insights for other rapidly growing emerging economies such as developing countries.