The impacts of climate change on wind and solar PV power generation in India

Climate change is expected to alter both the magnitude and variability of renewable energy resources, with key implications for climate-resilient power system planning across the world, especially in rapidly growing and evolving energy systems such as India’s. This study investigates how projected climate change may affect wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) generation potential across India in terms of changes in the mean and variability of power capacity factors across various spatial and temporal scales, and the occurrence of low-generation events.

In particular, for a subset of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) global climate models, we derive wind and solar PV capacity factor fields (CFs) for the historical and three future scenario experiments (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Future changes in renewable generation potential at grid-point and regional levels are found by analysing changes in mean CFs, and interannual and seasonal variability. We also identify and characterise “renewable droughts”, that is periods during which wind and/or solar PV CFs fall below given thresholds, and assess their frequency, duration, and severity under various climate scenarios.

To evaluate the robustness of CMIP6-derived projections, we first compare the historical CFs with those derived from the ERA5 reanalysis in order to understand the model biases and spread, and assess their ability to represent present-day renewable resources.

The results then highlight regions, seasons, and climate scenarios that may pose amplified risks to renewable energy supply, and may inform discussions on climate risks and resilience in long-term energy system planning for India. The derived CF timeseries will also support future work on system-level power system modelling.