Space Weather Predictions of Coronal Mass Ejections: Current Status and Paths for Improvements

Predicting the intrinsic structure and kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in a reliable and timely manner remains one of the central goals of space weather forecasting agencies and research efforts. Specifically, the most prominent properties of interest include whether a CME will impact a given target (i.e., the hit/miss problem), when a CME will arrive at that target (i.e., the arrival time problem), and a CME’s internal magnetic structure upon arrival (i.e., the Bz problem). However, significant challenges still prevent a full characterisation of CMEs from their solar origin through their interplanetary propagation, and thus limit our ability to accurately predict their space weather effects. These include difficulties in determining a CME’s pre-eruptive configuration, its early evolution in the corona, and its propagation in a structured and dynamic solar wind. Furthermore, beyond the traditional focus on modelling and predicting CME impacts at Earth, both the research and operational communities have begun to extend their efforts towards space weather forecasting at other locations in the solar system relevant to future human exploration, particularly Mars.

In this presentation, we will first provide an overview of the current status of CME predictions in interplanetary space and the primary issues that are necessary to overcome to improve real-time forecasts. We will review existing operational pipelines as well as more innovative approaches currently employed or under development within the research community. Finally, we will reflect on potential pathways towards improved CME prediction capabilities, considering advances in both modelling and forecasting methodologies as well as the role of future spacecraft observations that are expected to provide better constraints for existing prediction pipelines.