How does risk perception translate into action? Behavioral insights for seismic disaster preparedness in Bucharest, Romania

The link between risk perception and disaster preparedness behaviour represents a hot topic of debate in both Psychology and Disaster Risk Management (DRM), as empirical studies report both positive associations and contradictory results. Rather than indicating theoretical weakness, this lack of consensus points to the strong context-dependence of both risk perception and preparedness. These inconsistencies underscore the need for further research that explicitly engages with contextual factors, such as social normative influences or different types of vulnerability.

This study aims to investigate how risk perception and social influences (i.e., subjective norms) shape disaster preparedness behaviour. The framework advances three working hypotheses: that subjective norms, amplified by risk perception, significantly mediate preparedness intentions; that intentions and perceived earthquake likelihood and severity shape these subjective norms; and that social conformity can, in turn, dampen risk perception, reduce preparedness intentions, and reinforce normalcy bias.

This represents an extension of our previous analysis on the action gap in the context of seismic risk perception and preparedness in Bucharest, Romania. Taking the extended Theory of Planned Behavior as a theoretical underpinning, this research further advances existing work by integrating a composite demographic index (based on age, education, and income) and dwelling characteristics with different levels of physical vulnerability. The analysis is based on a two-phase cross-sectional online survey conducted in 2024 and 2025 using a questionnaire that was validated in other hazard contexts.

Key findings indicate that risk perception does not directly influence preparedness intentions or behaviour, but instead shapes subjective norms, which in turn influence intentions. Age moderates these dynamics: among older individuals, subjective norms exert a stronger effect on preparedness intentions, whereas in younger populations, attitudes play a more influential role on subjective norms but not on preparedness intentions. The results also reflect a broader social transition in Romania, from externally imposed collective expectations toward interpersonal, norm-based behaviour, while family-centred collectivist values continue to remain important.

These findings provide an empirical basis for improving earthquake risk communication, the content of early warning systems, disaster management plans, and education programmes. As subjective norms influence preparedness intentions differently across age groups, DRM policies and communications need to be tailored to age-specific behavioural mechanisms to effectively foster preparedness. Such insights are relevant to a wide range of stakeholders in Bucharest: first and second responders implementing interventions during the response and recovery phases, policymakers and decision-makers developing risk-reduction strategies decision-makers, academics designing education curricula, and insurance companies designing insurance policies.