Piloting climate storylines in adaptation finance as a tool to shift the political economy of adaptation policy and bankability

In this presentation, we introduce the project ATTENUATE (Creating the enabling conditions for UK climate adaptation investment), which aims to investigate how improvements in enabling conditions can mobilise additional public and private finance for climate change adaptation in the UK. The project focuses on the behavioural and institutional barriers embedded within the political economy of adaptation governance, including fragmented responsibilities across governance levels, persistent uncertainty over future climate risks, and limited incentives for private investment. Addressing these barriers is critical in light of the substantial adaptation finance gap identified in the UK, estimated to be at least £9 billion annually, with significant implications for infrastructure resilience, public services, and long-term economic stability.

A central and innovative component of ATTENUATE is the pioneering use of physical climate storylines in the context of adaptation finance. Climate storylines offer plausible, decision-relevant narratives of climate hazards and impacts that complement conventional risk assessments and probabilistic projections. By framing climate risks in ways that are tangible, locally relevant, and aligned with decision-making timescales, storylines have the potential to improve the communication, interpretation, and uptake of climate information within financial and policy processes.

The application of climate storylines to adaptation finance requires engagement across multiple governance levels and sectors, including policymakers, public authorities, investors, and practitioners. Through a participatory co-creation approach [1], ATTENUATE works with these actors to co-develop bespoke storylines that explicitly link climate impacts to financial outcomes, policy choices, and investment risks. Through this process, the project seeks to identify and address behavioural barriers that constrain more ambitious and transformative adaptation responses, particularly those affecting perceptions of risk, responsibility, and bankability.  We co-develop storylines in two contrasting local climate risk contexts in the UK - flood risks to infrastructure and property in the West Midlands, and heat-related risks in Hackney, London – and in a national-level case study with the UK Government’s Environment Ministry. Financial metrics adopted are differentiated according to whether the adaptation response will be funded from public or private sources.

The presentation will outline the conceptual foundations, development process, and piloting of climate storylines within ATTENUATE, and reflect on their potential to shift decision-making practices and support more financeable adaptation pathways. In particular, we will present partial results from a collaborative workshop with stakeholders held in January 2026. Finally, we will discuss how our approach introduces a model for the use of storylines in planning and decision-making in this multistakeholder finance context.

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the UK Research & Innovation (grant number UKRI282).

Reference:

[1] Beswick, A., Watkiss, P., England K., Gannon, K., de Melo Virissimo, F., Mehryar, S., Dookie, D., Rhodes V. 2025. Co-creation protocol for the ATTENUATE project.  https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/130961