Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ecological Vulnerability in Malta: An Empirical Analysis Using the PVOR Model

Accurate assessment of ecological vulnerability in island systems under natural and anthropogenic pressures is crucial for ecosystem stability and sustainable development. Constructing an adaptive and scientific framework for evaluating ecological vulnerability in island regions remains a key challenge. This study introduces a novel Pressure–Vigor–Organization–Resilience (PVOR) model for assessing ecological vulnerability, applied to the main island of Malta. A combined weighting approach using game theory was used to determine composite indicator weights, while multi-source data (e.g., remote sensing and geospatial data) were integrated to investigate the long-term spatiotemporal evolution of ecological vulnerability from 2000 to 2020 and its driving factors.

The results show that: (1) Over 20 years, the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) of Malta fluctuated but declined from 0.65 to 0.58. From 2000 to 2015, vulnerable areas were mainly located in the eastern built-up zones. By 2020, the area of highly vulnerable zones decreased by 86% due to ecological protection policies and the COVID-19 pandemic, with minor increases in vulnerability (less than 5 km²) along the southwestern coastline. (2) Ecological vulnerability exhibited significant spatial clustering (global Moran’s I > 0.80, p < 0.01), with high-value clusters in the east and low-value clusters in the west and north. (3) Key driving factors include habitat quality, landscape fragmentation, population density, and development intensity, with interaction effects being stronger than individual factors. (4) Based on both static and dynamic vulnerability assessments, ecological zoning was defined, and targeted management strategies were proposed.

This study provides a scientific foundation for ecological restoration and sustainable development in Malta, offering a transferable framework for other island systems.