Interplay between soil sealing and hydrogeological disaster impacts in Italy

Hydrogeological risk is a persistent and intricate global concern, particularly in Italy, where hydro-geomorphological disasters have inflicted substantial damage upon infrastructure and urban areas, and in severe instances, resulted in human fatalities. While climate change is widely recognized as a key driver of the frequency, intensity, and duration of these events, the magnitude of their impacts also depends on a wide range of environmental and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the drivers that shape the spatial extent and temporal persistence of hydro-geomorphological disasters. The analysis draws on the Italian Civil Protection database of emergency states, which was reprocessed to derive, for each province and for the period 2013–2024, two key indicators: the cumulative number of emergency states (CES) and their duration in months (MES). These variables provide insight into the recurrence and persistence of hydro-geomorphological impacts. Spatial analysis shows that the distribution of these indicators, especially duration, is non-random and displays clear spatial patterns. To explore the determinants of these patterns, the indicators were incorporated into a model assessing correlations with a set of environmental and anthropogenic variables. Two publicly available datasets were used, from which roughly sixty variables were selected after filtering. For each model iteration, four statistical parameters were computed to evaluate the strength of the correlations. The results reveal a strong positive correlation between soil sealing in areas classified as having intermediate hydrogeological risk and the temporal persistence of disaster impacts. A further temporal analysis indicates that soil sealing in these areas is still increasing by about 1% per year. These findings highlight the critical role of land use and urbanization processes in amplifying the effects of hydrogeological hazards and underscore the need for more effective planning and territorial management strategies to mitigate future risks.