Downscaled Population Projections Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A European Wide Application for Age, Gender and Education

Socioeconomic and demographic factors such as age structure, gender distribution, and education levels play a key role in shaping social vulnerability to climate-related risks. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide national-level projections of these variables under different future scenarios, but these aggregated estimates neglect the spatial heterogeneity that drives local vulnerabilities. This study introduces a novel methodology for downscaling national SSP projections to subnational administrative units (NUTS2) in Europe. The methodology is illustrated for the SSP3.1 scenario and includes, first, the calculation of region-to-country ratios, analysis of historical trends, and validation of the model by quantifying its agreement with observed historical time series. National projections are then either downscaled to the administrative unit level and adjusted for temporal trends where they are statistically significant, or downscaled using 2020 reference proportions. The resulting dataset provides spatially explicit, SSP3.1-consistent projections that capture subnational variability while aligning with national trends. This dataset could support a wide range of applications, including climate impact assessments, socioeconomic modeling, and adaptation planning. By prioritizing transparency and replicability, this study offers a valuable resource for researchers and decision-makers seeking subnational socio-demographic projections for Europe.