Aridification is Driven by Water-Cycle Acceleration Over the Mediterranean Region

The Mediterranean is widely recognized as a climate-change hotspot, where rapid warming increases evaporative demand and puts pressure on regional water availability. Although many studies have examined long-term precipitation trends, the role of daily evaporation dynamics in shaping aridification remains unclear. Here, we investigate whether extreme evaporation events (ExEvEs) contribute to the region’s accelerating aridification. Using high-resolution precipitation and evapotranspiration datasets for 1980–2023, we analyze annual water availability (P–E), moisture flux ((P + E)/2), and the frequency and intensity of ExEvEs. Our results reveal nearly stationary precipitation but steadily rising evapotranspiration, accompanied by a strong intensification of ExEvEs that accelerates moisture loss and amplifies short-term land–atmosphere feedbacks. These findings suggest that Mediterranean aridification is increasingly driven by evaporative extremes rather than persistent precipitation deficits, with important implications for water-resource planning and climate-adaptation strategies in this highly sensitive region.