Integrating public opinion and political dynamics into (agent-based) integrated assessment modelling

Climate change mitigation pathways are explored in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which are sophisticated frameworks but have limitations. They struggle with modelling abrupt changes and typically focus on specific subsystems such as the economy and the climate, neglecting social and political processes. Real economies are deeply intertwined with social, political and climate spheres, and the design of climate policy crucially depends on governing parties and public opinion, which in turn is shaped by economic performance, industry interests and climate impacts. 

Recent research has investigated how social influence and economic conditions shape public opinion and climate policy outcomes. Di Benedetto et al. (2025) extended the Dystopian Schumpeter Keynes (DSK) model by integrating an election mechanism in which a green party competes against a brown party. Election outcomes depend on economic conditions and climate variables, creating feedbacks between policy effectiveness and public support, but households are treated as a homogeneous aggregate. At the same time, Lackner et al. (2024) linked an opinion dynamics model to the DSK, capturing how economic performance, perceived climate change, lobbying and social influence shape household preferences, without feedback to political commitment.

In this paper, we integrate these two approaches within the DSK model to capture interactions between opinion dynamics, political outcomes, climate policy implementation and the economy. Households vote every four model years for either a green or a brown party. Climate policies may reduce public support through economic impacts, but may also strengthen green industries that promote climate awareness. We analyse policy packages including carbon pricing, industrial regulation and public subsidies aligned with EU climate targets, and assess how socio-economic and political dynamics shape the long-term feasibility of ambitious climate policy.