The Little Ice Age, Agricultural Disasters, and Social Resilience Dynamic: A Case Review of Ming Dynasty China in East Eurasia

The climate impact of the Little Ice Age is considered an important reason for the "17th century crisis" of various regions across the Eurasian continent. Using the recently reconstructed agricultural harvest sequence as an intermediary, this study re-examines the dynamic impact process and transmission mechanism of climate shocks in the downfall of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644CE), the most important geopolitical event in East Asia at that time. Under the macro climate background of the combination of the driest and coldest periods in the past 2000 years, the Ming Dynasty was continuously struck by severe climate disasters and crop failures. In response to these challenges, the Ming court has been working to enhance its resilience to climatic shocks through local finance transfers and silver finance. However, this strategy has inadvertently weakened local communities' ability to cope with such shocks. However, since the mid-16th century, changes in weather patterns have led to large-scale synchronous crop failures in both northern and southern China, making it difficult for the Ming Dynasty to implement cross regional macroeconomic regulation and control measures. This dilemma reached its peak in the early 17th century, leading to sustained disaster relief failures and peasant rebellions. At the same time, the hostile Manchurian regime in the northeast suffered and survived climate shocks and agricultural disasters earlier and more lightly, rejoining the anti-Ming alliance of climate disasters and peasant armies. After the 1640s, climate anomalies and disasters gradually subsided from north to south, accompanied by the Manchu regime's gradual southward conquest and eventual occupation of the remaining forces of the Ming Dynasty. This study provides a dynamic spatiotemporal process of the impact of climate change on the downfall of the Ming Dynasty, and can also serve as a comparative case for studying the response to climate change of other regimes on the Eurasian continent at that time.