Sustaining the Future in Low Earth Orbit

The developments rapidly (and alarmingly) playing out in low-Earth orbit (LEO) are significantly affecting aspects of radio astronomy, nighttime ground-based astronomy, space weather remote sensing, space physics, solar observing, and access to space itself. It is suggested that space-involved organizations should step in to promote actions to regulate the nearly $400 billion space industry that presently is operating in a Wild West , essentially unregulated, fashion due to the inadequacy of current licensing and launch practices. Many forums have provided compelling evidence from scientists and engineers about the interference that communications spacecraft are having on research programs. When the added—and extremely concerning—consequences of exponentiating orbital debris associated with satellite launches and collisions are folded in, we are seeing the equivalent of Garrett Hardin’s “Tragedy of the Commons” in near-Earth space (Science, 1968). It is enticing to citizens world-wide to have low-priced, essentially global, and unfettered communications. However, this is coming at a significant cost to science in our cosmic “backyard”. If satellites continue to increase in number and attendant debris continues to fill bands around Earth, it will soon be nearly impossible to observe the universe beyond our planet with ground-based telescopes or even safely launch and operate scientific satellites in LEO. What is quite clear is that the uncontrolled and unregulated flooding of LEO now is encouraging further players to do the same as what the U.S. is doing.  This will not ‘self-regulate’ for economic reasons: an earlier 2021 NSF-funded study by the JASON committee, titled “The Impacts of Large Constellations of Satellites”, found that the perceived and persistent positive economic payoff return vs. investment cost would not limit the rapid deployment trend even beyond 100,000 satellites. Until the problems and dangers of the populating LEO are better understood and until mitigation is possible, research bodies should be insisting that governments (as well as non-government players) be constrained from carrying out more massive launches. It would be hoped that this presentation will allow an examination of the issues and will lead to productive discussion of policy approached that can help address the growing problem including:

• Regulatory Framework and Governance
• Sustainability of Satellite Operations
• Astronomical Obscuration
• Radio Astronomy Interference
• Satellite Collisions and Orbital Debris
• International Cooperation and Coordination