Assessing mangrove vulnerability to climate and land use changes in Pacific Islands using a catchment-to-coast modelling framework.

Mangrove wetlands in the Pacific Islands are among the most significant yet vulnerable ecosystems, providing critical services such as habitat for marine life, flood protection, and carbon storage. Located in low-lying coastal zones, these wetlands face severe threats from sea-level rise (SLR), climate variability, and human-induced pressures, including land-use changes and flood management. Their capacity to persist under these conditions depends largely on sediment availability, as accretion-driven by sediment deposition and organic matter accumulation—enables mangroves to keep pace with rising sea levels.
This study employs an integrated modelling framework that combines hydro-sedimentological simulations of catchment processes with eco-geomorphological models of coastal wetlands to assess long-term resilience under current and future scenarios. We evaluate sediment loads from inland catchments, influenced by cropland expansion, management practices, and extreme events such as tropical cyclones, and incorporate these dynamics into wetland evolution models alongside SLR projections. This methodology not only improves understanding of key drivers of wetland stability but also offers a transferable tool for assessing vulnerability in other data-limited regions worldwide.