Just Transition and Sustainable Development: Comparative analysis of coal-powered plant phase-out

Achieving carbon neutrality through rapid energy transition has become an irreversible global trend. Rapid transition hinges, more fundamentally, on how social conflicts arising from the distribution of transition costs are managed through just transition mechanisms—specifically, who bears the costs, through what institutional arrangements, and how fairly those costs are shared. Thus, existing research on Just Transition (JT) has largely concentrated on the economic impacts of coal phase-out on miners and coal-dependent local communities, particularly with respect to employment loss and regional economic decline. However, energy transition encompasses a broad agenda that extends well beyond job creation for displaced workers, including sustainable development at the regional and national levels and the expansion of renewable energy systems. This underscores the need for a more comprehensive and integrated discussion of just transition that links labor, regional development, governance, and energy system.

Current empirical and comparative research remains limited on how institutionalized social dialogue—one of the core components of a just transition—is organized and operationalized to the extent that broad agenda is set and deliberated in practice. Also, much of the current JT literature remains at a theory-generating stage, leaving a significant research gap concerning the actual performance, implementation dynamics, and conflict-management capacity of institutionalized Just Transition dialogues.

This study seeks to explore the conditions under which integrated social dialogue can emerge and function effectively to connect Just Transition with regional sustainable development in coal-fired power plant–concentrated regions undergoing coal phase-out. Through a comparative analysis of Germany, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and South Africa, the study identifies key enabling and constraining factors influencing such governance arrangements.

Using a Most Different Systems Design (MDSD), this study compares cases from countries with distinct political, institutional, and cultural settings that confront a shared challenge of coal-powered plant phase-out. The analysis relies on qualitative methodologies, including process tracing and comparative case studies, supported by evidence from policy documents and in-depth interviews with relevant stakeholders.

Recognizing Just Transition as the product of political coalitions and institutional arrangements, this study acknowledges the substantial variation in how JT is implemented across regions. However, by focusing on the role of policy entrepreneurs rather than adopting a path-dependent perspective, the study highlights the capacity of proactive and reform-oriented leadership to shape transformative outcomes. In doing so, it provides policy-relevant insights for countries aiming to pursue a rapid energy transition that effectively integrates Just Transition with sustainable regional development during coal-fired power plant closures.