Elucidating Cascading and Cumulative Mechanisms of Compound Disasters in Korean Social–Ecological Systems and Proposing Nature-Based Solutions Strategies for Enhancing Resilience

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of hazards such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and wildfires worldwide. As hazards interact and occur in sequence, cascading and compounding impacts are becoming more common, particularly under disturbance regimes where chronic pressures and acute shocks co-occur and reorganize system states through feedbacks and time lags. Similar patterns are emerging in Korea, calling for an integrated framework that links press–pulse dynamics with Pressure–State–Response relationships to identify actionable intervention points. Nature-based solutions are promising for reducing compound disaster risk, but their effectiveness depends on where and how extensively they are implemented. A resilience-oriented synthesis is therefore needed to translate spatial NbS scenarios into clear strategy packages.

This study aims to explain, under press–pulse dynamics, how global climate change scenarios intensify interactions among single hazards within Korea’s social–ecological system and how these interactions expand into compound disaster risk through cascading and compounding pathways. It also aims to restructure variables and causal pathways using a Pressure–State–Response framing in order to identify key regulating factors and priority intervention points. The identified intervention points are operationalized into NbS implementation scenarios that reflect hotspots and exposure-weighted priorities. The effects of these scenarios are then verified through model-based quantitative assessment. Finally, the study organizes which of the four resilience dimensions are embedded in each NbS scenario or are most clearly strengthened and proposes combinable NbS strategy packages aligned with implementation stages.

This study examines how climate change scenarios intensify interactions among single hazards within Korea’s social–ecological system and how these interactions expand into compound disaster risk through cascading pathways. Variables and causal pathways are reorganized using a Pressure–State–Response framework to identify key regulating factors and priority intervention points. These intervention points are translated into national-scale, stepwise NbS land-use and land-cover scenarios based on hotspot and exposure-weighted prioritization under explicit transition rules and constraints. Scenario effects are evaluated using multiple InVEST models and FlamMap, with performance assessed through hotspot and exposure-weighted metrics rather than national means. Results are then synthesized to indicate which resilience dimensions are embedded or most pronounced across scenarios, and combinable NbS strategy packages are proposed across implementation stages.

The compound-disaster causal loop model indicates that the coupling of chronic pressures and acute shocks strengthens inter-hazard linkages and activates cross-scale feedbacks, yielding cascading and compounding impacts in Korea’s social–ecological system. Across hazard types, priority intervention points converge on land-cover structure, hydrological regulation, surface and soil conditions, slope stability, and catchment connectivity. Model-based assessments show that NbS scenarios can reduce hazard risks while generating co-benefits in ecosystem services, particularly in hotspot and high-exposure areas. These effects can be organized into resilience-oriented strategy packages, emphasizing robustness through strengthened regulating functions, redundancy through distributed blue–green networks, resourcefulness through multifunctional NbS portfolios, and rapidity through designs and operations that support faster functional recovery and limit lag-driven amplification.

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry &Technology Institute (KEITI) through "Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime.", funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (RS-2022-KE002123).