Emerging trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train in a warming climate

Since the late 20th century, a newly emerging atmospheric teleconnection—the trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train—has intensified remarkably during summer, driving concurrent heatwave-drought events from Eastern Europe to East Asia. Three centuries of tree-ring records confirm that the recent intensity of this pattern is unprecedented. Meanwhile, the circumglobal teleconnection, which historically dominated continental-scale Eurasian heatwaves, shows no discernible trend under global warming—signaling a fundamental shift in Eurasian summer climate dynamics. The mechanism involves Rossby wave propagation linked to warming sea surface temperatures in the Northwestern Atlantic and enhanced Sahel precipitation, both amplified by the combined effects of anthropogenic warming and natural variability. Land-atmosphere feedbacks through soil moisture deficits further intensify the pattern regionally. Climate projections indicate that anthropogenic forcing will continue to strengthen this pattern throughout the 21st century.