Astronomically Driven Climate Change as an Amplifier of Carbon Cycle Instability and Ecological Crisis at the Norian-Rhaetian Boundary

The Norian-Rhaetian boundary (NRB) marks a critical interval of Late Triassic global environmental instability, ecological crisis, and climatic transition, which preceded the sustained biodiversity decline culminating in the end-Triassic mass extinction. Despite its significance, the drivers of carbon cycle and biotic disturbances across the NRB remain unresolved. In most cases, these major mass extinctions in geological history are interpreted as chain reactions triggered by volcanic activity. Interestingly, the NRB and Rhaetian intervals lack compelling evidence for synchronous, precisely dated, large-scale volcanism with demonstrable global effects. In this context, the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) erupted later at ca. 201 Ma, while other impact-related triggers and/or proposed large igneous provinces (LIP), such as the Angayucham LIP in Alaska (214 ± 7 Ma), remained weakly constrained in magmatic timing, magnitude, and environmental significance. In the absence of significant volcanism, the mechanisms underlying carbon cycle perturbations and ecological crises become even more enigmatic.

Here, we present a high-resolution carbonate carbon isotope (δ¹³C_carb) profile spanning the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic from South China. Through independent U-Pb dating and cyclostratigraphic analysis, a high-precision astronomical timescale was established. Carbon isotope variations are strongly controlled by orbital cycles, and the record reveals two large-magnitude negative carbon isotope excursions (CIEs) at ca. 205 Ma and 201 Ma, corresponding to the NRB and Triassic-Jurassic Boundary (TJB), respectively. Our study posits that astronomically driven climate change persistently influenced the NRB and subsequent Rhaetian intervals, triggering a series of chain reactions involving climate, vegetation, carbon burial, greenhouse gas emissions, and other factors. Ultimately, it acted as an amplifier in the NRB event, leading to carbon cycle perturbations and ecological crises during this period, thus potentially preconditioning the Earth system for the subsequent end-Triassic mass extinction. This study further highlights the significance of low-latitude coastal areas as dynamic amplifiers of carbon cycle instability and underscores the vulnerability of modern carbon reservoirs under ongoing climate change.