Spatial Analysis of Climate Inequality in Seoul, South Korea: A Focus on the Disparity Between Urban Flood Risk and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Climate change has increasingly been recognized as deepening social inequality, as responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and vulnerability to climate-related impacts are unevenly distributed across populations. While recent research highlights the growing importance of intranational climate inequality, quantitative evidence remains limited in South Korea.

Climate inequality encompasses a broad range of interpretations. In this study, climate inequality refers to the disparity between climate change-induced risks and GHG emissions. Among various climate-related hazards, this study focuses on flood risk as a major and recurring urban threat in South Korea.

For flood risk assessment, the IPCC framework was applied. Indicators for vulnerability and sensitivity indices were selected through a review of prior studies and weighted using a combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Entropy method. The hazard index was estimated from historical flood inundation maps, with vulnerability and sensitivity indices constructed using key socioeconomic, housing, and built-environment indicators.

For the assessment of GHG emissions, emission values at the individual building level were estimated using data from a limited number of buildings with available emission information. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was applied to estimate GHG emissions for the remaining residential buildings.

Flood risk and estimated GHG emissions were aggregated and compared at the administrative dong level—the smallest local administrative unit in South Korea—and the resulting gap was defined as climate inequality in this study. The results reveal a pattern of climate inequality within Seoul: socially vulnerable areas are more exposed to flood risks exacerbated by climate change, whereas wealthier areas contribute disproportionately to GHG emissions. By empirically demonstrating the existence of climate inequality in South Korea, this study provides a foundational framework for future research on climate inequality.

 

This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through "Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime.", funded by Korea Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment (MCEE) (RS-2022-KE002123).