Risk Scenarios of Extreme Tsunamis Caused by Marsili in the Mediterranean Sea

About 150 km off the western coast of Calabria (Italy) lies the Marsili seamount, the largest and most active submarine volcano in the Mediterranean region, representing one of its most significant geohazards. Due to its proximity to densely populated coastal areas, a potential flank collapse could generate extreme tsunami events. 
In this work, we perform high-resolution numerical simulations to explore multiple risk scenarios associated with Marsili-induced tsunamis. The model solves the depth-averaged Shallow Water Equations using a shock-capturing HLL scheme combined with the cut-cell technique to accurately represent coastal boundaries. Realistic bathymetric data were employed to simulate tsunami propagation over an area of approximately 69km² , encompassing northern Sicily, western Calabria, and the Aeolian Islands.

The results provide insight into tsunami dynamics and highlight the importance of advanced numerical modeling for improving regional hazard assessments and early-warning strategies in the central Mediterranean.

This study was carried out within the Space It Up project, funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI), and the Ministry of University and Research (MUR), under Contract Grant No. 2024-5-E.0–CUP no. I53D24000060005.