Compound Dry and Hot extremes over the Indian subcontinent

Severe droughts that occur alongside high temperatures and depleted soil moisture lead to compound dry–hot extremes (CDHE), having profound consequences for food security, water availability, human health and economic stability. This study uses the Blended Dry and Hot Events Index (BDHI) to identify CDHEs and to evaluate their characteristics over historical and future periods across the different climatic regions of the Indian subcontinent. The BDHI is constructed using combinations of multiple standardized indices, derived from precipitation, soil moisture and air temperature data. A novel framework is employed to identify compound events and to examine their evolution and propagation concurrently across spatial and temporal scales.  The framework, identified events of varying degrees over the Indian subcontinent, including the mega-events of 2002 and 2009, and noted considerable increases in CDHEs during the recent decades. Climate change analysis using CMIP6 model projections reveal that CDHE events are projected to increased considerably under a 3^oC warming world. The study improves understanding of how CDHE stresses may differentially affect regions across the Indian subcontinent, thereby supporting climate adaptation planning and risk management in climate-vulnerable areas.