Preliminary Evaluation the Operational Application Effect of "Fengqing", an AI-based Global Short and Medium Range Forecasting System

In 2024, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), in collaboration with Tsinghua University, developed the “Fengqing” forecasting system following an innovative "AI-Physics" hybrid approach. Through designs such as a multi-scale latent space projection architecture and an energy-conservation loss function, the model has been equipped with global short-and medium-range weather forecasting capabilities and has been operationally implemented. This study comprehensively evaluated the forecasting ability of the Fengqing in China and its surrounding areas in 2024 from several metrics such as forecasting accuracy and bias distribution. It also focused on two kinds of typical synoptic processes, typhoons and rainstorms, to deeply explore the model's performance in forecasting of disastrous weather. The results show that the 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts maintain predictive skill beyond 10 days in Fenging. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for the 2 m surface air temperature and the 850 hPa temperature in the upper air is significantly lower than that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (hereafter, ECMWF-IFS), with a maximum improvement of 37.66%. In terms of typical weather processes, the Fengqing model demonstrates marginally superior performance in typhoon track forecasting compared to ECMWF-IFS, though exhibits systematic underestimation in typhoon intensity prediction. In addition, the Fengqing model exhibits superior torrential rainfall forecasting capabilities, demonstrating precise prediction of typhoon-induced precipitation patterns and Mei-yu front rainfall belt positioning. The TS score for heavy rain forecasts in the medium-term (73-168h lead time) improvements reaching 43.53% compared to that of ECMWF-IFS forecasts. Overall, the Fengqing model demonstrates considerable potential in operational forecasting, although further improvements are needed in forecast activity and typhoon intensity prediction at medium- to long-range lead times.