1,- 1Urban Emissions Information, Goa, India
- 2IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Nairobi, Kenya
- 3www.ar-tiste.xyz
Dense fog events across India severely disrupt aviation, surface transportation, and daily activities during winter months, with northern districts experiencing extended periods of visibility issues. Building upon the WRF-based ensemble fog forecasting over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and BOFFIN-Melbourne's Bayesian Decision Network framework, this study proposes a continuous risk monitoring and decision support system at district-level (admin-2).
The operational system will conduct daily continuous risk assessment, leveraging satellite observations from MODIS/VIIRS/INSAT-3D and the ECMWF IFS ensemble forecasts (51 members, 0.25° resolution) including probabilistic meteorological predictions of temperature, dewpoint, wind speed, boundary layer height, relative humidity profiles, and cloud cover, to characterize antecedent fog conditions and to establish baseline occurrence patterns.
A Bayesian Network will integrate these layers to provide real-time short-term forecasts using pre-defined conditional probability tables which encode relationships between stable boundary layer conditions, radiative cooling, and regional fog formation mechanisms. The operational output of the algorithms will be in the form of traffic light decision matrix for each district: Green (Minimal/Low risk - Monitor), Yellow (Moderate risk - Be Aware), Orange (High risk - Be Prepared), Red (Extreme risk - Take Action).
This paper will present the validation results from pilot districts and the development framework for scaling to nationwide continuous risk assessment, demonstrating the system's potential for proactive decision-making in transportation management, aviation operations, and public safety advisories.
References
- Parde, Avinash N., et al. "Operational probabilistic fog prediction based on ensemble forecast system: A decision support system for fog." Atmosphere 13.10 (2022): 1608.
- Boneh, Tal, et al. "Fog forecasting for Melbourne Airport using a Bayesian decision network." Weather and Forecasting 30.5 (2015): 1218-1233.
How to cite: Guttikunda, S. K., Kalladath, N., Tucci, R. R., Ouma, J., Amdihun, A., and Dammalapati, S. K.: Fog Risk Monitoring and Assessment for India Using Bayesian Networks and ECMWF IFS Ensemble Prediction System, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-9696, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-9696, 2026.
