A National-scale Comparative Socioeconomic Vulnerability Assessment for Hydro-Climatic Disaster Risk Reduction in India

Hydro-climatic hazards in India are intensifying, amplifying socioeconomic disruption and widening regional inequalities, consistent with recent IPCC AR5 and AR6 findings. Yet socioeconomic vulnerability (SEV) assessments remain methodologically inconsistent, subjective, and rarely validated. This study advances applied geographic research by improving spatially explicit vulnerability assessment and enabling evidence-based regional planning through the first standardized, statistically evaluated, and fully reproducible national-scale SEV assessment framework for India. Using the latest district-level Census data, we construct multicollinearity-tested composite indicators—derived from fractions and percentages rather than raw variables—to represent socioeconomic dimensions relevant to hydro-climatic (flood and multi-hazard) risk. A novel dual-scenario structure is introduced: a sensitive scenario capturing exposure–susceptibility, and an adaptive scenario capturing resilience–capacity. A complementary socioeconomic sustainability layer represents long-term demographic and structural pressures often overlooked in existing frameworks. To reduce subjectivity in methodological choice, the study conducts a comprehensive comparative evaluation of SEV methods, testing major approaches, including six variants of Data Envelopment Analysis and commonly used alternatives. A rigorous geospatial evaluation protocol applies standardized diagnostics—probability distribution fitting, coefficient of variation, Gini index, Moran’s I, and indicator-perturbation sensitivity analysis. Results show Pareto ranking is the most stable, conservative, and spatially coherent method. Principal component and variance-based factor analyses identify dominant drivers, including marginal workforce share, non-working population proportion, household density, and population density. The India-wide SEV map highlights coherent spatial clusters and major hotspots across heatwave-prone (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh) and flood-prone (West Bengal, Odisha, Assam) regions. Overall, the study presents a validated, bias-free SEV assessment system to support evidence-based DRR planning and climate adaptation.