A Risk-Nexus Approach to Systemic Resilience: Integrating Biodiversity-Climate Interactions into Multi-Hazard Governance

Background and Objectives. Systemic resilience to multi-hazards requires addressing interdependencies between ecological and climatic risks, yet current frameworks often treat environmental and societal dynamics in isolation. This study synthesizes evidence from a decade of global risk assessments (WEF Global Risks Reports, 2016–2025) and IPBES-IPCC scientific evaluations to propose an integrated "risk-nexus" governance framework. We aim to: (1) delineate cascading pathways between climate-biodiversity risks and socioeconomic systems; (2) identify tipping points in critical ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs, tropical forests, peatlands) that amplify multi-hazard impacts; and (3) evaluate strategies for enhancing systemic resilience through synergistic interventions.  

Methods. We analyzed time-series data from WEF reports on risk severity, interconnectedness, and cascading patterns, complemented by IPBES-IPCC case studies on threshold-driven ecosystems. Network analysis was used to map risk propagation pathways, while a scenario-based approach assessed the efficacy of Nature-based Solutions (NbS), adaptive governance, and early-warning systems in mitigating compound hazards.  

Key Findings. (i) Risk Coupling: Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem collapse exhibit strong clustering in global risk networks, acting as core nodes that amplify food, water, and health crises; (ii)Threshold Effects: Ecosystems like coral reefs (at 1.5°C warming) and Amazon forests (at 20–25% deforestation) face nonlinear collapse, triggering cascading socioecological disruptions.  (iii) Synergistic Strategies: NbS—such as coastal mangrove restoration and forest landscape resilience—simultaneously mitigate hazards, sequester carbon, and sustain livelihoods when embedded in adaptive governance. Early-warning systems tied to ecological thresholds (e.g., soil moisture, heat stress indices) reduce latency in response.  

Conclusions and Relevance. Systemic resilience hinges on bridging siloed risk management via a "risk identification–threshold warning–response decision" framework. This approach aligns climate adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and disaster risk reduction, offering actionable pathways for multi-hazard resilience. Our findings underscore the need to integrate ecological thresholds into policy triggers and prioritize nexus governance to navigate polycrisis contexts.  

Keywords: Systemic Resilience, Multi-Hazards, Climate-Biodiversity Nexus, Thresholds, Nature-based Solutions, Cascading Risks.