Lessons learnt from the application of various wildfire growth models for the environmental conditions in Central Europe

Wildfires are an upcoming threat across Central Europe, driven by shifting climate regimes, extended drought periods, and rising temperatures. Effective fire management depends on a solid understanding of fire behavior, which creates a demand for reliable fire growth models. Fire modelling in this region poses several challenges, especially if the models were developed for different environmental regions (e.g. North America). The availability of high-resolution fuel data, fuel models and information on local fuel moisture and wind patterns - all important drivers for fire spread prediction – can cause additional difficulties in predicting fire behavior. Well-documented fire events can provide reliable information for model calibration and validation, but such case studies are scarce in Central Europe.

Therefore, this study investigates the applicability of several fire growth models (Farsite, Prometheus, Simtable^TM, PhyFire) for the specific environmental conditions in Central Europe based on a set of pre-defined evaluation criteria. The selected models are applied to two well-documented fire cases to assess their ability in predicting spatial and temporal fire growth under varying environmental conditions in Central Europe. The analysis reveals differences in suitability among the models and underscores the need for region-specific calibration. Furthermore, improved data availability regarding documented fire cases and wind velocity and direction are demanded. These results help to identify the needs for an advanced wildfire growth modelling in Central Europe and supports more informed fire management decisions and training in future.