Advancing Non Indigenous Species detection in the Adriatic Sea: a multi-scale modeling and monitoring framework within the ALIENA Project

Non-indigenous species (NIS) represent a major global driver of biodiversity loss and alteration of ecosystems functioning. Semi-enclosed and highly exploited marine basins, such as the Adriatic Sea, are particularly vulnerable. As a critical zone for maritime transport, fisheries, aquaculture and tourism, the Adriatic Sea faces an elevated risk of NIS introductions, which threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem services and can incur substantial socio-economic costs.

In response to this cross-border challenge, the Interreg VI-A Italy-Croatia ALIENA project (ALIgning Efforts to control Non-indigenous species in the Adriatic sea) aims at enhancing the protection of Adriatic biodiversity through the development of a harmonized, collaborative framework for NIS knowledge, monitoring and management.

Within ALIENA, CMCC is developing and implementing advanced forecasting models to assess conditions favorable to the presence of alien species and their spread through a multi-scale modeling approach. Specifically, the Mediterranean Analysis and Forecasting System (MedFS, NEMO v4.2 - WW3 v6.07 models) provides seasonal and interannual variability of key hydrological and physico-chemical parameters at the basin scale (approximately 4 km of horizontal resolution). For coastal analysis, the Adriatic Forecasting System (AdriFS, SHYFEM-MPI - WW3 models) is employed with a horizontal resolution ranging from approximately 200 m in coastal areas to 2.5 km offshore. In addition, a dedicated coupled modelling system (SHYFEM–BFM) has been implemented for the Apulia Region Pilot Site, featuring a horizontal resolution from 40–60 m near the coast to about 1.5 km offshore.

To enable continuous monitoring of physical and biogeochemical parameters and to detect the occurrence of potential Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), a multiparametric probe has been installed on a buoy in the Torre Guaceto Marine Protected Area (MPA), in collaboration with the MPA Consortium. This station provides in-situ measurements of the following variables: pressure, temperature, conductivity (salinity, density), dissolved oxygen, turbidity, chlorophyll a fluorescence, phycoerythrin fluorescence, chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM), providing fundamental datasets for model calibration and validation.

This work presents the results of the modeling and in-situ monitoring activities conducted within the ALIENA project, contributing to the development of an Early Warning System for NIS detection in the Adriatic Sea.